Lakshman achuthan biography examples

Erik:     Joining me now is Lakshman Achuthan, founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Lak prepared a short chart deck to accompany today's interview. Registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you're not registered yet. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com. Click the red button that says looking for the downloads.

Lak, it's great to get you back on the show. Last time we had you on was August of 2021. And at the end of that interview, I said hey you're a cycles driven guy. So why don't you reach out to us when your cycles tell you, you got something new to talk about. You reached out a couple of weeks ago before the whole Ukraine situation erupted on us. And you said you had something to talk about pertaining to an upcoming policy mistake. What's on your mind?

Lakshman:     Right! Hey, it's great to be back and thanks for the intro. Basically pre-Ukraine crisis, we were just staring down the barrel of a couple of policy mistake choices. It wasn't whether or not there would be one. it was just which one do you want to choose. And to kick it off, I'd say the first one that we were alluding to probably the last time we were able to talk together is that they could be tightening. The Fed could be tightening into a slowdown and therefore be risking a recession and or market crash. And I guess alternatively, if you took the other kind of door. They could kind of back off and get a bit more dovish. And then under those circumstances, they'd be risking runaway inflation and letting that get really embedded.

And so they had a very very narrow path to try and get to the proverbial soft landing. And not even I think realizing that we were cycling down in terms of growth. And since then, since I reached out, that path has become extremely narrow I would say at this point. And I think it's not too long ago, j

Ben: [00:00:00] Welcome to the alt asset allocation podcast, exploring alternative investment opportunities available to the everyday investor. Here’s your host Ben Lakoff.

Hello and welcome to the all to asset allocation podcast. Today’s interview is with Lakshman Achuthan. Lakshman is Mr. Economic cycles himself, and he has spent his entire career studying economic cycles.

There are many different economic cycles in play at any given time. And it’s actually a bit overwhelming in this conversation. We discuss where we are in the economic cycles and some mistakes, those using economic models to predict where we’re going might make and where he thinks we could be going based on the leading indicators that he’s following before you listen, please don’t forget to like, or subscribe to the podcast or even better leave a review.

If you’re watching this on YouTube. Hi, please subscribe to the channel and, or give the video a thumbs up all over these things really help new people find the podcast and it really helps keep this thing going. So thank you. There is a lot here, but cycles are very important to understand, because even though it may feel like it’s different this time more often than not, it’s actually not.

Please enjoy this conversation with  on all things cycles, enjoy blacksmith. I’m very excited to have you on today.

Lakshman: [00:01:28] You’re welcome. Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here.

Ben: [00:01:32] which added a bit beforehand and I I’ve listened to on real vision and macro voices and senior on Bloomberg, but for my listeners that don’t know who you are.

Can you give a little background of who you are and how, and what you do at  ECRI?

Lakshman: [00:01:49] Sure. Who am I, I, you know, so I’m a student of the business cycle. That’s what I would, you know, I try to be humble. Even though we have a lot of indicators that give us some conviction at times and I’ve been doing

Erik:     Joining me now is Lakshman Achuthan, co founder of the Economic Cycles Research Institute, Lak prepared a slide deck to accompany today's interview. Listeners, you'll find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, just go to our homepage macrovoices.com. Look for the red button above locks picture that says looking for the downloads. Lock, it's great to get you back on the show. Before we dive into the slide deck, I want to start with a super novice topic because it seems like we need to revisit it. Given a lot of politics lately. Let's start with the definition of what a recession is. I actually surprised myself recently, before President Biden changed the definition so to speak, I had said on the air that the neighbor definition the official National Bureau of Economic Research definition of a recession was two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And I have more aggressive fact checkers than Donald Trump. So I was overwhelmed promptly, by listeners said, nope, you got it wrong. That's not it, you should get Lak back on the show, in order to teach you what in a recession really is. And that was before President Biden repeated my mistake. So let's start with recessions. But really as investors, what are the key things we need to understand about how recessions? What role they play in economic cycles and what they mean to us?

Lakshman:    Thank you so much. And I'm really grateful to your listeners, and to you for asking the question and really wanting to understand what a recession is, I certainly find it fascinating. You know, they call it the Achilles heel of the free market oriented economy, which is not a knock on the free market. But it's just a feature of, kind of ebb and flow that we have, when we allow a free market to run, which is what we're generally trying to do. So a recession, first and foremost, one of the things is it's not

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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00:00:09 [Speaker Changed] This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

00:00:15 [Barry Ritholtz] On this week’s podcast, I sit down with Lachman Han. He is the co- founder of ri, the Economic Cycle Research Institute. I’ve known Lakshman Achuthan for, I don’t know, 15 years, almost 20 years at least. And I’ve always found his take on the world of economics and recessions and inflation and employment just fascinating and unique and different from what everybody else does. It is very specifically data driven based on a model that was originally co-developed by Professor Joffrey Moore. And I don’t know how else to describe it other than you’re looking at data, you’re looking at leading indicators of different lengths, as well as coincidental indicators, and you’re trying to figure out when cycles turn. Hey, anybody can predict the trend, just stay with it until it ends. But catching the turns is much more challenging. They’ve put together a tremendous track record over the past 30 years, better than just about everybody. Nobody’s perfect, but they’ve gotten more of the turns and more of the major cycle turns than anybody else. And that’s why their research is read by not just big investment houses and companies, but sovereign banks and governments around the world. I, I thought this conversation was absolutely fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Lakshman Achuthan. Welcome back to Bloomberg.

00:01:55 [Lakshman A